Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +7.16 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY39.6%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+7.16 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.3%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 72.5%Marx Fair UP 72.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 31, 08:29 PMJul 31, 08:29 PMJul 31, 08:29 PMJul 31, 08:29 PMJul 31, 08:29 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-31T20:29:35.213Z72.5%72.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 39.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 9.4%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.2%. Marx fair UP is 39.6%.