VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.02 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 31, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.1% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY58.3%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+5.02 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.3%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%

Jul 31, 11:57 AMJul 31, 11:57 AMJul 31, 11:57 AMJul 31, 11:58 AMJul 31, 11:58 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-31T11:57:00.694Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T11:58:55.323Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 58.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.0 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.1%, gross edge 7.3%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.0%. Marx fair UP is 58.3%.