VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+46.75 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN83.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 96.5%Marx Fair UP 96.5%

Jul 30, 08:41 PMJul 30, 08:43 PMJul 30, 08:45 PMJul 30, 08:47 PMJul 30, 08:49 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T20:41:27.249Z	50.5%	100.0%	+49.5 pp
2026-07-30T20:49:26.259Z	96.5%	96.5%	-0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.