Ethereum Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN83.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 96.5%Marx Fair UP 96.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 30, 08:40 PMJul 30, 08:42 PMJul 30, 08:44 PMJul 30, 08:47 PMJul 30, 08:49 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T20:40:11.560Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:40:18.242Z48.5%50.5%+2.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:40:30.797Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:40:31.927Z96.5%48.5%-48.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:40:54.870Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:41:27.249Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-07-30T20:42:25.187Z48.5%100.0%+51.5 pp
2026-07-30T20:42:39.900Z96.5%100.0%+3.5 pp
2026-07-30T20:42:52.319Z96.5%96.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:43:27.587Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:43:28.718Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:44:25.032Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-30T20:44:25.195Z48.5%100.0%+51.5 pp
2026-07-30T20:45:26.074Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:45:33.729Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:46:23.410Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:47:30.034Z96.5%96.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:49:26.259Z96.5%96.5%-0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict