VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +16.81 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%81.6% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+16.81 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN20.9%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 72.5%

Jul 30, 07:50 PMJul 30, 07:52 PMJul 30, 07:54 PMJul 30, 07:56 PMJul 30, 07:57 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T19:50:36.363Z	49.5%	100.0%	+50.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:51:38.212Z	72.5%	72.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:52:00.485Z	72.5%	72.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:52:23.553Z	72.5%	72.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:53:26.323Z	72.5%	100.0%	+27.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:54:27.363Z	72.5%	100.0%	+27.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:54:28.841Z	72.5%	100.0%	+27.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:55:28.621Z	72.5%	72.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:55:46.351Z	72.5%	72.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:56:28.392Z	72.5%	72.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:57:52.492Z	99.5%	72.5%	-27.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable UP entry was 81.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 16.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 81.6%, gross edge 19.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.0%, safety 0.5%, net edge 16.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.