Ethereum Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.41 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%52.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY99.7%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+45.41 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN86.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 30, 06:25 PMJul 30, 06:27 PMJul 30, 06:29 PMJul 30, 06:32 PMJul 30, 06:34 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T18:25:17.567Z51.5%51.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T18:26:53.033Z51.5%100.0%+48.5 pp
2026-07-30T18:28:23.000Z80.5%80.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T18:28:42.253Z80.5%80.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T18:29:14.421Z80.5%100.0%+19.5 pp
2026-07-30T18:29:24.199Z97.5%100.0%+2.5 pp
2026-07-30T18:30:18.732Z97.5%100.0%+2.5 pp
2026-07-30T18:30:23.379Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-30T18:30:24.365Z42.5%100.0%+57.5 pp
2026-07-30T18:30:39.485Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T18:31:24.596Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T18:32:25.899Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T18:33:22.735Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T18:34:26.098Z100.0%99.5%-0.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 99.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 47.7%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.4%. Marx fair UP is 99.7%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.41 pp Edge | AntiPredict