VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.41 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%52.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY99.7%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+45.41 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN86.1%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 99.5%

Jul 30, 06:30 PMJul 30, 06:31 PMJul 30, 06:32 PMJul 30, 06:33 PMJul 30, 06:34 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T18:30:39.485Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T18:34:26.098Z	100.0%	99.5%	-0.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 99.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.4 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 47.7%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.4%. Marx fair UP is 99.7%.