Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +50.38 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%47.4% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+50.38 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN103.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 98.5%Marx Fair UP 98.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 30, 06:20 PMJul 30, 06:21 PMJul 30, 06:22 PMJul 30, 06:24 PMJul 30, 06:25 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T18:20:37.570Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-07-30T18:25:20.535Z98.5%98.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 47.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 50.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 47.4%, gross edge 53.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 50.4%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.