Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +12.66 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%86.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+12.66 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN15.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 30, 05:40 PMJul 30, 05:42 PMJul 30, 05:45 PMJul 30, 05:47 PMJul 30, 05:49 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T17:40:42.483Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-07-30T17:41:29.697Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-07-30T17:41:29.985Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-07-30T17:42:22.710Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T17:42:40.975Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T17:43:22.660Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-30T17:44:01.386Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-07-30T17:44:22.927Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-30T17:44:23.139Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-30T17:45:22.792Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T17:45:33.216Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T17:46:24.142Z100.0%99.5%-0.4 pp
2026-07-30T17:46:30.394Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T17:46:46.663Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T17:47:24.036Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T17:48:23.167Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T17:49:34.415Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 86.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 12.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 86.0%, gross edge 14.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 0.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 12.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +12.66 pp Edge | AntiPredict