VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.78 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 30, 09:30 AMJul 30, 09:32 AMJul 30, 09:35 AMJul 30, 09:37 AMJul 30, 09:39 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T09:30:40.038Z | 49.5% | 51.6% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-07-30T09:31:18.127Z | 46.5% | 51.6% | +5.1 pp |
| 2026-07-30T09:31:21.358Z | 46.5% | 51.6% | +5.1 pp |
| 2026-07-30T09:31:56.913Z | 46.5% | 46.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T09:32:08.641Z | 46.5% | 46.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T09:32:57.852Z | 46.5% | 54.0% | +7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T09:33:38.735Z | 46.5% | 54.0% | +7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T09:33:59.288Z | 80.5% | 54.0% | -26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T09:34:08.044Z | 49.5% | 54.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T09:34:26.899Z | 80.5% | 54.0% | -26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T09:35:09.627Z | 100.0% | 54.0% | -45.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T09:36:44.470Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T09:37:06.052Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T09:37:56.751Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T09:39:04.301Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T09:39:58.300Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 40.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.8%, gross edge 8.8%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.8%. Marx fair UP is 40.2%.