VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +24.23 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 30, 08:30 AMJul 30, 08:32 AMJul 30, 08:34 AMJul 30, 08:36 AMJul 30, 08:38 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T08:30:10.707Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:30:57.055Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:31:21.037Z | 52.5% | 42.6% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:31:48.823Z | 52.5% | 42.6% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:32:42.722Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:32:52.143Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:33:24.855Z | 52.5% | 51.4% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:33:48.716Z | 52.5% | 51.4% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:34:58.991Z | 100.0% | 99.5% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:35:31.769Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:35:56.691Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:35:56.885Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:36:21.934Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:37:14.546Z | 100.0% | 99.5% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:37:38.948Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:38:10.529Z | 60.5% | 100.0% | +39.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:38:10.532Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 19.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 53.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 24.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.8%, gross edge 27.2%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 24.2%. Marx fair UP is 19.8%.