Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +24.23 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY48.0%53.8% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY19.8%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+24.23 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-4.5%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 19.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.0%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 53.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 24.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.8%, gross edge 27.2%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 24.2%. Marx fair UP is 19.8%.