Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.22 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%52.5% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+45.22 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN84.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%
Jul 29, 10:26 PMJul 29, 10:26 PMJul 29, 10:26 PMJul 29, 10:26 PMJul 29, 10:26 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T22:26:54.431Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 52.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.5%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 1.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.