Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +48.16 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY47.5%49.6% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+48.16 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN94.8%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 29, 05:56 PMJul 29, 05:57 PMJul 29, 05:59 PMJul 29, 06:00 PMJul 29, 06:01 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T17:56:20.041Z49.5%99.9%+50.4 pp
2026-07-29T17:58:14.347Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-07-29T17:59:43.084Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:59:56.049Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:01:51.581Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 47.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 49.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 48.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 49.6%, gross edge 51.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 48.2%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.