VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +48.16 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 29, 05:55 PMJul 29, 05:57 PMJul 29, 05:59 PMJul 29, 06:01 PMJul 29, 06:02 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T17:55:55.901Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:56:20.041Z | 49.5% | 99.9% | +50.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:56:27.802Z | 47.5% | 99.9% | +52.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:57:42.967Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:57:56.591Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:58:14.347Z | 47.5% | 100.0% | +52.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:58:43.323Z | 47.5% | 100.0% | +52.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:59:43.084Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:59:56.049Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:00:19.341Z | 47.5% | 100.0% | +52.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:00:42.588Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:00:54.730Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:01:42.007Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:01:51.581Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:02:44.846Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 47.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 49.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 48.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 49.6%, gross edge 51.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 48.2%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.