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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN93.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 19.5%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 04:40 PMJul 29, 04:42 PMJul 29, 04:44 PMJul 29, 04:46 PMJul 29, 04:48 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T16:40:22.924Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-29T16:41:21.237Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:41:44.063Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:41:56.095Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:42:20.219Z48.5%0.0%-48.5 pp
2026-07-29T16:42:43.491Z48.5%0.0%-48.5 pp
2026-07-29T16:43:45.387Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:43:57.985Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:44:20.285Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-29T16:44:42.254Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-29T16:45:41.925Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:46:02.443Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:46:22.778Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:46:43.128Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:47:43.956Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:47:55.355Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:48:53.303Z19.5%0.1%-19.4 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict