VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN93.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%

Jul 29, 04:40 PMJul 29, 04:42 PMJul 29, 04:44 PMJul 29, 04:46 PMJul 29, 04:47 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-29T16:40:22.924Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-07-29T16:42:20.219Z	48.5%	0.0%	-48.5 pp
2026-07-29T16:47:55.355Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.