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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +61.40 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY73.5%36.5% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+61.40 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN162.5%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 03:40 PMJul 29, 03:42 PMJul 29, 03:44 PMJul 29, 03:45 PMJul 29, 03:47 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T15:40:51.487Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:41:18.925Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:41:57.661Z73.5%0.0%-73.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:42:43.349Z0.5%73.5%+73.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:42:57.380Z73.5%73.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:43:18.357Z73.5%0.0%-73.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:44:51.149Z73.5%73.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:45:15.924Z73.5%0.0%-73.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:45:56.580Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:46:42.829Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:46:55.766Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:47:42.364Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 73.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 36.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 61.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 36.5%, gross edge 64.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 61.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +61.40 pp Edge | AntiPredict