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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +53.76 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%44.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+53.76 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN111.8%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 01:40 PMJul 29, 01:42 PMJul 29, 01:44 PMJul 29, 01:45 PMJul 29, 01:47 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T13:40:20.217Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:41:44.527Z34.5%34.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:41:54.098Z34.5%34.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:42:11.527Z34.5%100.0%+65.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:42:42.633Z34.5%100.0%+65.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:43:41.695Z34.5%34.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:43:50.011Z34.5%34.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:44:11.442Z34.5%100.0%+65.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:44:43.576Z34.5%100.0%+65.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:45:41.797Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:45:52.138Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:46:11.920Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:46:41.899Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:47:41.967Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:47:50.111Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 44.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 53.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 44.0%, gross edge 57.0%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 53.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +53.76 pp Edge | AntiPredict