VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.10 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.7% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+46.10 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN87.3%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%

Jul 29, 01:30 PMJul 29, 01:32 PMJul 29, 01:34 PMJul 29, 01:36 PMJul 29, 01:38 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-29T13:30:53.150Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:31:01.552Z	100.0%	50.5%	-49.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:31:14.522Z	50.5%	100.0%	+49.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:32:54.551Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:33:09.919Z	50.5%	100.0%	+49.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:36:07.879Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:36:16.519Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:36:42.253Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:37:41.765Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:38:14.134Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.1 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.1%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 1.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.