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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +61.45 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%36.4% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+61.45 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN162.8%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 01:10 PMJul 29, 01:12 PMJul 29, 01:14 PMJul 29, 01:15 PMJul 29, 01:17 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T13:10:40.349Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:11:43.712Z34.5%34.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:12:23.198Z34.5%34.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:12:43.416Z34.5%34.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:13:10.725Z34.5%100.0%+65.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:13:42.112Z34.5%100.0%+65.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:14:43.787Z34.5%34.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:14:52.972Z34.5%34.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:15:16.604Z34.5%100.0%+65.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:15:42.709Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:15:54.651Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:16:44.240Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:16:53.855Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:17:42.409Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 36.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 61.5 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 36.4%, gross edge 64.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 61.5%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +61.45 pp Edge | AntiPredict