VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.31 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 29, 06:10 AMJul 29, 06:12 AMJul 29, 06:13 AMJul 29, 06:15 AMJul 29, 06:17 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T06:10:09.553Z | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:10:44.897Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:11:39.248Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:11:48.913Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:12:16.243Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:12:52.595Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:14:03.116Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:14:14.870Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:14:40.831Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:15:40.514Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:15:51.589Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:16:14.320Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:16:41.274Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:17:43.713Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.4%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.3%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.