Ethereum Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.45 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.3% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.45 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN88.5%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 07:16 PMJul 28, 07:18 PMJul 28, 07:20 PMJul 28, 07:22 PMJul 28, 07:24 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T19:16:40.203Z44.5%0.0%-44.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:17:44.653Z44.5%0.0%-44.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:18:40.127Z44.5%0.0%-44.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:19:41.004Z16.5%0.0%-16.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:20:40.177Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:20:46.639Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:21:40.449Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:22:41.711Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:22:45.058Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:23:41.902Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:24:41.100Z0.0%0.5%+0.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.5 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 57.0%, gross edge 43.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 40.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.45 pp Edge | AntiPredict