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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN93.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 66.5%Marx Fair UP 66.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 11:50 AMJul 28, 11:52 AMJul 28, 11:55 AMJul 28, 11:57 AMJul 28, 11:59 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T11:50:35.005Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:50:44.159Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:50:45.443Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:50:59.782Z44.5%0.0%-44.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:51:32.448Z44.5%0.0%-44.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:52:34.035Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:52:40.215Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:53:02.974Z44.5%0.0%-44.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:54:13.140Z54.5%54.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:54:30.984Z66.5%54.5%-12.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:54:37.736Z54.5%54.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:54:47.960Z66.5%66.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:55:30.967Z66.5%0.0%-66.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:55:45.057Z66.5%0.0%-66.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:56:32.493Z66.5%0.0%-66.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:57:31.056Z66.5%66.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:57:36.133Z66.5%66.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:58:31.089Z66.5%66.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:59:30.833Z66.5%66.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict