Ethereum Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +51.43 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY61.5%46.3% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+51.43 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN108.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 11:35 AMJul 28, 11:37 AMJul 28, 11:40 AMJul 28, 11:42 AMJul 28, 11:44 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T11:35:34.832Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:35:39.906Z43.5%43.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:35:58.046Z43.5%0.0%-43.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:36:31.007Z48.5%0.0%-48.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:37:35.839Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:37:43.224Z61.5%48.5%-13.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:37:56.483Z61.5%61.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:38:44.612Z49.5%0.0%-49.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:38:44.733Z61.5%0.0%-61.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:39:49.074Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:40:56.632Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:41:12.019Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:41:50.913Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:42:30.972Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:43:30.993Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:44:30.955Z0.0%0.5%+0.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 61.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 46.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 51.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 46.3%, gross edge 55.0%, slippage 1.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 51.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +51.43 pp Edge | AntiPredict