Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +51.43 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY61.5%46.3% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+51.43 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN108.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 28, 11:38 AMJul 28, 11:40 AMJul 28, 11:41 AMJul 28, 11:43 AMJul 28, 11:44 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T11:38:44.733Z61.5%0.0%-61.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:41:12.019Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:44:30.955Z0.0%0.5%+0.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 61.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 46.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 51.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 46.3%, gross edge 55.0%, slippage 1.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 51.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.