VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 81.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 28, 10:45 AMJul 28, 10:47 AMJul 28, 10:50 AMJul 28, 10:52 AMJul 28, 10:54 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T10:45:34.696Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:45:58.277Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:46:17.414Z | 65.5% | 0.0% | -65.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:46:30.958Z | 65.5% | 0.0% | -65.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:47:31.222Z | 65.5% | 65.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:47:35.363Z | 65.5% | 65.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:47:59.849Z | 65.5% | 0.0% | -65.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:48:32.294Z | 65.5% | 0.0% | -65.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:49:31.491Z | 65.5% | 65.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:49:40.848Z | 65.5% | 65.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:50:09.101Z | 65.5% | 0.0% | -65.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:50:30.924Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:50:36.035Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:51:31.019Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:51:56.017Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:52:33.772Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:53:31.209Z | 81.5% | 0.5% | -81.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:54:04.522Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:54:35.245Z | 81.5% | 0.5% | -81.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.