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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN93.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 04:30 AMJul 28, 04:32 AMJul 28, 04:34 AMJul 28, 04:37 AMJul 28, 04:39 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T04:30:30.864Z34.5%34.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T04:31:30.783Z34.5%34.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T04:31:34.275Z34.5%34.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T04:31:40.621Z34.5%0.0%-34.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:32:30.859Z34.5%0.0%-34.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:33:30.887Z4.5%0.0%-4.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:33:58.325Z4.5%0.0%-4.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:34:30.881Z4.5%0.0%-4.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:35:30.824Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T04:36:30.963Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T04:37:35.416Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T04:37:43.489Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T04:39:00.656Z0.0%0.1%+0.1 pp
2026-07-28T04:39:14.495Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict