VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.74 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+47.74 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN93.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 7.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Jul 28, 04:25 AMJul 28, 04:27 AMJul 28, 04:30 AMJul 28, 04:32 AMJul 28, 04:34 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T04:25:40.720Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:26:30.818Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:27:30.942Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:28:30.812Z	12.5%	0.0%	-12.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:28:50.132Z	12.5%	0.0%	-12.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:29:30.840Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:30:13.014Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:30:30.864Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:31:30.783Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T04:31:34.262Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T04:32:30.859Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T04:33:30.887Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T04:34:30.881Z	7.5%	0.5%	-7.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.