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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +51.73 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%46.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+51.73 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN109.3%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 04:10 AMJul 28, 04:12 AMJul 28, 04:14 AMJul 28, 04:17 AMJul 28, 04:19 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T04:10:08.102Z49.5%0.0%-49.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:10:31.959Z54.5%0.0%-54.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:11:30.853Z54.5%0.0%-54.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:12:30.946Z54.5%0.0%-54.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:13:30.803Z20.5%0.0%-20.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:14:30.800Z20.5%0.0%-20.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:15:30.819Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:15:43.496Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:16:30.902Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:17:30.970Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T04:17:35.332Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T04:18:31.032Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T04:19:30.781Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 46.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 51.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 46.0%, gross edge 55.0%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 51.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +51.73 pp Edge | AntiPredict