VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +51.73 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%46.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+51.73 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN109.3%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Jul 28, 04:10 AMJul 28, 04:11 AMJul 28, 04:13 AMJul 28, 04:15 AMJul 28, 04:17 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T04:10:08.102Z	49.5%	0.0%	-49.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:17:35.332Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 46.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 51.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 46.0%, gross edge 55.0%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 51.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.