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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN93.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 10.5%Marx Fair UP 10.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 01:15 AMJul 28, 01:17 AMJul 28, 01:19 AMJul 28, 01:21 AMJul 28, 01:23 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T01:15:08.340Z0.5%50.5%+50.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:15:34.552Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:15:40.031Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:15:44.205Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:15:54.938Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:17:34.709Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:17:56.920Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:18:39.586Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:19:33.550Z0.5%50.5%+50.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:19:34.310Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:19:39.480Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:19:49.738Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:20:32.238Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:21:30.804Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:21:34.546Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:22:44.104Z0.5%10.5%+10.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:23:39.851Z0.0%10.5%+10.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:23:46.426Z10.5%10.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:23:50.955Z10.5%10.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict