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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +58.11 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%39.7% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+58.11 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 27, 09:20 PMJul 27, 09:22 PMJul 27, 09:25 PMJul 27, 09:27 PMJul 27, 09:29 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-27T21:20:39.080Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-27T21:20:58.475Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-07-27T21:22:32.112Z33.5%49.5%+16.0 pp
2026-07-27T21:22:33.672Z33.5%49.5%+16.0 pp
2026-07-27T21:22:34.535Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-27T21:22:39.029Z33.5%33.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-27T21:22:59.357Z33.5%100.0%+66.5 pp
2026-07-27T21:23:34.886Z54.5%100.0%+45.5 pp
2026-07-27T21:24:30.846Z54.5%54.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-27T21:24:34.186Z54.5%54.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-27T21:25:00.165Z54.5%100.0%+45.5 pp
2026-07-27T21:25:00.887Z54.5%100.0%+45.5 pp
2026-07-27T21:25:30.798Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-07-27T21:26:30.830Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-27T21:26:55.719Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-27T21:27:30.786Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-27T21:28:30.735Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-27T21:29:30.738Z0.0%0.5%+0.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 39.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 58.1 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 39.7%, gross edge 61.0%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 58.1%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +58.11 pp Edge | AntiPredict