Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +29.67 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY64.5%68.3% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+29.67 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN43.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 64.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 27, 08:21 PMJul 27, 08:21 PMJul 27, 08:21 PMJul 27, 08:22 PMJul 27, 08:22 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-27T20:21:00.555Z64.5%100.0%+35.5 pp
2026-07-27T20:22:56.536Z64.5%100.0%+35.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 64.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 68.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 29.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 68.3%, gross edge 32.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 29.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.