VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +29.67 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 83.5%
Jul 27, 08:20 PMJul 27, 08:22 PMJul 27, 08:25 PMJul 27, 08:27 PMJul 27, 08:29 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T20:20:37.137Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:20:39.533Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:21:00.294Z | 64.5% | 100.0% | +35.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:21:00.555Z | 64.5% | 100.0% | +35.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:21:30.779Z | 64.5% | 100.0% | +35.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:22:33.599Z | 64.5% | 50.5% | -14.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:22:34.441Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:22:41.038Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:22:56.536Z | 64.5% | 100.0% | +35.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:23:39.235Z | 83.5% | 100.0% | +16.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:24:30.747Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:24:39.682Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:25:06.574Z | 83.5% | 100.0% | +16.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:25:30.785Z | 83.5% | 100.0% | +16.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:26:30.723Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:26:43.946Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:27:30.816Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:28:30.732Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:29:30.769Z | 99.5% | 83.5% | -16.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 64.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 68.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 29.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 68.3%, gross edge 32.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 29.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.