VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.87 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.2% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY59.3%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+5.87 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.5%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Jul 28, 04:31 PMJul 28, 04:33 PMJul 28, 04:34 PMJul 28, 04:36 PMJul 28, 04:37 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T16:31:55.456Z	9.5%	0.0%	-9.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:37:54.521Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 59.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.9 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.2%, gross edge 8.3%, slippage 0.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.9%. Marx fair UP is 59.3%.