VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN93.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%

Jul 27, 05:30 PMJul 27, 05:32 PMJul 27, 05:34 PMJul 27, 05:36 PMJul 27, 05:38 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-27T17:30:31.824Z	56.5%	56.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-27T17:30:39.611Z	56.5%	56.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-27T17:31:01.789Z	56.5%	100.0%	+43.5 pp
2026-07-27T17:31:30.744Z	56.5%	100.0%	+43.5 pp
2026-07-27T17:32:30.771Z	56.5%	56.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-27T17:32:39.153Z	56.5%	56.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-27T17:32:59.823Z	56.5%	100.0%	+43.5 pp
2026-07-27T17:33:30.766Z	56.5%	100.0%	+43.5 pp
2026-07-27T17:34:30.839Z	56.5%	56.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-27T17:34:34.468Z	56.5%	56.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-27T17:35:00.232Z	56.5%	100.0%	+43.5 pp
2026-07-27T17:35:30.820Z	99.5%	100.0%	+0.5 pp
2026-07-27T17:35:43.879Z	99.5%	100.0%	+0.5 pp
2026-07-27T17:36:58.939Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-27T17:38:25.033Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable UP entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.