VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 81.5%Marx Fair UP 81.5%
Jul 27, 04:30 PMJul 27, 04:32 PMJul 27, 04:34 PMJul 27, 04:36 PMJul 27, 04:39 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T16:30:34.565Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:30:41.782Z | 68.5% | 68.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:30:44.118Z | 68.5% | 68.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:31:04.406Z | 68.5% | 100.0% | +31.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:31:30.776Z | 68.5% | 100.0% | +31.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:32:30.829Z | 68.5% | 68.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:32:34.648Z | 68.5% | 68.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:33:00.661Z | 68.5% | 100.0% | +31.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:33:30.724Z | 68.5% | 100.0% | +31.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:34:30.983Z | 99.5% | 68.5% | -31.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:34:34.200Z | 68.5% | 68.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:34:39.736Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:35:01.003Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:35:30.763Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:36:30.913Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:36:34.020Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:37:34.563Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:38:32.217Z | 100.0% | 81.5% | -18.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:38:39.425Z | 81.5% | 81.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:39:01.746Z | 81.5% | 81.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.