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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +8.14 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.2% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY38.4%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+8.14 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 24.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 05:30 AMJul 28, 05:32 AMJul 28, 05:35 AMJul 28, 05:37 AMJul 28, 05:39 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T05:30:47.395Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:32:34.190Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:32:39.271Z49.5%0.0%-49.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:34:30.927Z0.5%49.5%+49.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:34:34.445Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:34:41.333Z7.5%0.0%-7.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:34:41.855Z7.5%0.0%-7.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:34:48.060Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:35:30.796Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:35:33.721Z7.5%0.0%-7.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:35:39.016Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:36:30.801Z24.5%24.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:36:39.682Z24.5%24.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:38:46.924Z0.0%24.5%+24.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:38:55.306Z24.5%24.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:39:36.114Z0.0%24.5%+24.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 38.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 8.1 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.2%, gross edge 12.1%, slippage 0.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 9.7%. Marx fair UP is 36.9%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +8.14 pp Edge | AntiPredict