Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +63.23 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY46.5%34.7% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+63.23 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN175.7%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 46.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 27, 12:56 PMJul 27, 12:57 PMJul 27, 12:57 PMJul 27, 12:58 PMJul 27, 12:58 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-27T12:56:41.857Z46.5%100.0%+53.5 pp
2026-07-27T12:58:41.158Z46.5%100.0%+53.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 46.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 34.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 63.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 34.7%, gross edge 66.0%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 63.2%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.