VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +63.23 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY46.5%34.7% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+63.23 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN175.7%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%

Jul 27, 12:56 PMJul 27, 12:58 PMJul 27, 12:59 PMJul 27, 01:01 PMJul 27, 01:02 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-27T12:56:41.857Z	46.5%	100.0%	+53.5 pp
2026-07-27T12:58:20.442Z	46.5%	46.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-27T12:58:41.158Z	46.5%	100.0%	+53.5 pp
2026-07-27T12:59:12.169Z	46.5%	100.0%	+53.5 pp
2026-07-27T13:02:42.177Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 46.5%.
The executable UP entry was 34.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 63.2 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 34.7%, gross edge 66.0%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 63.2%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.