VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
ETH 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +39.16 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 31, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 31, 12:55 PMJul 31, 01:42 PMJul 31, 02:29 PMJul 31, 03:16 PMJul 31, 04:03 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T12:55:45.674Z | 43.0% | 0.4% | -42.6 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:58:32.325Z | 33.5% | 0.4% | -33.1 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:02:13.642Z | 43.0% | 0.4% | -42.6 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:05:54.622Z | 42.0% | 0.6% | -41.4 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:52:06.295Z | 32.5% | 0.0% | -32.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:59:25.785Z | 15.0% | 0.0% | -15.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T14:13:27.993Z | 7.5% | 0.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T14:59:23.412Z | 5.0% | 5.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T14:59:46.779Z | 5.0% | 5.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:57:41.212Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:59:29.296Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-31T16:03:45.405Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 43.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 58.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 39.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 3.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 58.2%, gross edge 41.6%, slippage 0.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 39.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.4%.