VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
ETH 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +39.16 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 31, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 31, 12:00 PMJul 31, 01:01 PMJul 31, 02:02 PMJul 31, 03:02 PMJul 31, 04:03 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T15:25:07.824Z | 2.1% | 1.6% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:26:21.253Z | 1.7% | 1.6% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:27:33.648Z | 1.7% | 1.6% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:27:55.350Z | 1.7% | 1.6% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:28:24.534Z | 1.6% | 1.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:29:26.653Z | 1.7% | 1.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:29:40.747Z | 1.6% | 1.7% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:31:32.890Z | 1.7% | 0.0% | -1.7 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:32:13.485Z | 1.8% | 1.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:32:35.144Z | 1.7% | 1.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:33:18.868Z | 1.1% | 1.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:33:37.723Z | 1.1% | 0.0% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:33:47.104Z | 1.1% | 0.0% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:37:55.395Z | 1.1% | 1.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:41:27.820Z | 1.1% | 1.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:43:54.830Z | 0.1% | 1.0% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:44:46.425Z | 1.1% | 1.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:45:49.917Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:46:49.732Z | 1.1% | 0.0% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:47:14.586Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:47:42.624Z | 1.1% | 0.2% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:49:12.397Z | 1.1% | 1.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:50:41.239Z | 0.1% | 1.1% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:53:04.743Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:56:39.683Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:57:41.212Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:58:21.813Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T15:59:29.296Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-31T16:00:41.808Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T16:03:45.405Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 43.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 58.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 39.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 3.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 58.2%, gross edge 41.6%, slippage 0.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 39.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.4%.