VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
ETH 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +41.99 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 88.0%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Jul 29, 04:00 PMJul 29, 04:55 PMJul 29, 05:50 PMJul 29, 06:45 PMJul 29, 07:40 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T19:06:46.509Z | 96.8% | 97.5% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:06:56.807Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:07:44.447Z | 96.8% | 97.5% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:09:20.790Z | 96.8% | 8.3% | -88.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:09:45.684Z | 98.5% | 8.3% | -90.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:11:19.394Z | 98.5% | 5.1% | -93.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:11:42.128Z | 98.5% | 5.1% | -93.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:13:18.168Z | 98.5% | 9.9% | -88.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:13:42.380Z | 98.5% | 9.9% | -88.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:14:52.759Z | 94.5% | 10.6% | -83.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:15:33.822Z | 98.4% | 10.6% | -87.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:18:20.492Z | 98.4% | 8.9% | -89.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:22:45.591Z | 97.5% | 94.1% | -3.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:23:42.779Z | 94.1% | 94.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:23:53.643Z | 94.1% | 94.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:25:45.615Z | 94.3% | 94.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:26:06.639Z | 94.3% | 94.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:28:52.672Z | 94.3% | 94.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:30:44.991Z | 89.5% | 89.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:30:58.495Z | 89.5% | 89.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:32:46.307Z | 89.5% | 89.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:33:02.590Z | 89.5% | 89.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:33:54.575Z | 89.5% | 89.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:35:04.341Z | 89.5% | 89.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:35:45.083Z | 88.0% | 89.6% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:37:30.346Z | 89.5% | 0.0% | -89.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:37:44.709Z | 88.0% | 0.0% | -88.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:39:45.565Z | 88.0% | 95.1% | +7.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:39:50.671Z | 95.2% | 95.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:40:17.657Z | 88.0% | 0.0% | -88.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 3.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 52.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 42.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 6.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.7%, gross edge 45.0%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 42.0%. Marx fair UP is 3.0%.