VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
ETH 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +41.99 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 26.9%Marx Fair UP 26.8%
Jul 29, 04:10 PMJul 29, 05:09 PMJul 29, 06:07 PMJul 29, 07:06 PMJul 29, 08:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T17:24:24.497Z | 66.5% | 4.2% | -62.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:27:22.484Z | 69.0% | 3.4% | -65.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:31:16.705Z | 62.0% | 1.9% | -60.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:33:16.181Z | 62.0% | 2.2% | -59.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:39:16.566Z | 69.0% | 2.1% | -66.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:41:22.786Z | 68.5% | 3.0% | -65.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:43:14.196Z | 68.5% | 3.3% | -65.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:49:22.417Z | 76.0% | 3.7% | -72.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:54:21.059Z | 83.0% | 7.2% | -75.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:59:43.084Z | 91.5% | 91.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:59:56.031Z | 91.0% | 91.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:04:21.182Z | 93.5% | 69.0% | -24.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:11:26.804Z | 93.0% | 48.5% | -44.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:13:15.328Z | 93.0% | 45.9% | -47.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:15:18.434Z | 93.0% | 33.4% | -59.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:17:13.379Z | 94.5% | 35.8% | -58.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:21:29.222Z | 86.0% | 12.1% | -73.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:26:17.689Z | 87.0% | 4.9% | -82.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:30:24.825Z | 87.0% | 7.3% | -79.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:34:22.397Z | 86.5% | 1.4% | -85.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:55:45.971Z | 95.5% | 45.1% | -50.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:59:14.898Z | 95.5% | 45.1% | -50.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:40:17.657Z | 88.0% | 0.0% | -88.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:46:17.293Z | 94.2% | 0.0% | -94.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:51:31.242Z | 44.4% | 0.0% | -44.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:54:26.486Z | 22.3% | 0.0% | -22.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:56:15.882Z | 30.8% | 0.0% | -30.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:59:44.540Z | 5.5% | 26.8% | +21.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:59:58.472Z | 26.9% | 26.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:04:31.106Z | 26.9% | 26.8% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 3.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 52.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 42.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 6.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.7%, gross edge 45.0%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 42.0%. Marx fair UP is 3.0%.