Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 4-Hour hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS

ETH 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +16.40 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY34.5%82.1% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+16.40 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN13.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 28, 08:46 AMJul 28, 09:36 AMJul 28, 10:25 AMJul 28, 11:15 AMJul 28, 12:04 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T08:46:58.769Z48.0%0.0%-48.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:56:37.144Z48.0%0.0%-48.0 pp
2026-07-28T09:57:30.872Z19.5%0.0%-19.5 pp
2026-07-28T09:58:56.844Z34.5%0.0%-34.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:01:07.057Z19.5%0.0%-19.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:02:55.544Z19.5%0.0%-19.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:58:59.419Z27.0%0.0%-27.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:59:31.153Z27.0%0.0%-27.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:59:30.833Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:59:39.831Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:01:39.838Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:04:31.175Z0.0%0.1%+0.1 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 34.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 82.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 16.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 3.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 80.4%, gross edge 20.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.1%, safety 0.5%, net edge 18.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.