VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
ETH 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +16.40 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 28, 08:01 AMJul 28, 09:02 AMJul 28, 10:03 AMJul 28, 11:03 AMJul 28, 12:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T11:32:01.774Z | 1.6% | 0.0% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:33:30.977Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:33:40.121Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:35:34.799Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:37:35.790Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:37:43.224Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:37:57.655Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:39:59.690Z | 5.0% | 5.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:40:56.632Z | 5.0% | 5.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:41:50.913Z | 5.0% | 5.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:42:05.817Z | 5.0% | 5.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:43:30.993Z | 5.0% | 5.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:44:14.530Z | 5.0% | 5.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:44:30.955Z | 0.3% | 5.0% | +4.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:44:56.950Z | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:46:30.937Z | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:46:57.762Z | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:47:32.144Z | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:48:57.712Z | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:50:45.508Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:52:45.136Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:54:37.713Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:57:24.430Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:57:42.460Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:59:30.833Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:59:39.831Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:01:32.082Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:01:39.838Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:02:33.811Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:04:31.175Z | 0.0% | 0.1% | +0.1 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 34.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 82.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 16.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 3.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 80.4%, gross edge 20.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.1%, safety 0.5%, net edge 18.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.