VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +13.70 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 8, 6AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 08, 10:00 AMAug 08, 10:15 AMAug 08, 10:30 AMAug 08, 10:46 AMAug 08, 11:01 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T10:44:00.408Z | 89.5% | 94.6% | +5.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:44:22.153Z | 94.5% | 94.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:44:22.450Z | 94.5% | 94.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:45:11.254Z | 94.5% | 94.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:46:11.693Z | 96.5% | 96.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:46:44.959Z | 94.5% | 96.1% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:48:30.972Z | 94.5% | 94.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:48:44.221Z | 94.5% | 97.3% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:50:10.990Z | 96.5% | 96.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:50:21.664Z | 96.5% | 96.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:50:46.973Z | 96.5% | 98.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:51:13.940Z | 98.8% | 98.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:52:31.725Z | 96.5% | 96.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:52:45.079Z | 96.5% | 98.8% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:54:20.844Z | 98.8% | 98.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:54:38.944Z | 98.8% | 98.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:54:51.715Z | 98.8% | 99.7% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:54:53.228Z | 98.8% | 99.7% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:55:11.051Z | 99.3% | 99.7% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:56:14.177Z | 99.6% | 99.3% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:56:27.165Z | 99.3% | 99.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:56:41.635Z | 99.3% | 99.9% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:58:14.362Z | 99.6% | 99.3% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:58:18.898Z | 99.3% | 99.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:59:14.363Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:59:44.317Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:59:46.102Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:00:11.215Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:01:11.107Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:01:21.879Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 77.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 52.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 61.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 13.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 61.1%, gross edge 17.0%, slippage 1.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 13.7%. Marx fair UP is 77.0%.