Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 1-Hour hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +13.70 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 8, 6AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY52.0%61.1% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY77.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+13.70 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN29.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.6%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 08, 10:02 AMAug 08, 10:16 AMAug 08, 10:31 AMAug 08, 10:45 AMAug 08, 10:59 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-08T10:02:41.520Z46.5%74.4%+27.9 pp
2026-08-08T10:08:49.338Z52.0%77.0%+25.0 pp
2026-08-08T10:14:50.276Z69.5%83.1%+13.6 pp
2026-08-08T10:59:14.363Z99.6%100.0%+0.4 pp
2026-08-08T10:59:46.102Z99.6%100.0%+0.4 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 77.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 52.0%.
  • The executable UP entry was 61.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 13.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 61.1%, gross edge 17.0%, slippage 1.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 13.7%. Marx fair UP is 77.0%.