Ethereum Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +5.51 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 8, 5AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY51.5%52.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY59.8%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+5.51 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN58.8%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 98.9%Marx Fair UP 99.9%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 08, 09:01 AMAug 08, 09:16 AMAug 08, 09:30 AMAug 08, 09:44 AMAug 08, 09:59 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-08T09:01:35.815Z51.5%66.1%+14.6 pp
2026-08-08T09:03:42.437Z51.5%65.9%+14.4 pp
2026-08-08T09:09:40.364Z58.5%66.4%+7.9 pp
2026-08-08T09:19:45.045Z50.5%69.4%+18.9 pp
2026-08-08T09:58:51.477Z98.9%99.9%+1.0 pp
2026-08-08T09:59:16.060Z98.9%99.9%+1.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 59.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.5 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 9.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.3%. Marx fair UP is 61.5%.