VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +5.51 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 8, 5AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.7%Marx Fair UP 99.7%
Aug 08, 09:01 AMAug 08, 09:16 AMAug 08, 09:31 AMAug 08, 09:47 AMAug 08, 10:02 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T09:45:42.564Z | 91.8% | 91.7% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:46:18.789Z | 95.0% | 91.7% | -3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:47:14.658Z | 95.0% | 95.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:47:27.657Z | 95.0% | 95.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:47:57.276Z | 95.0% | 95.4% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:47:58.848Z | 95.0% | 95.4% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:48:14.208Z | 97.5% | 95.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:48:22.990Z | 97.5% | 95.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:49:12.470Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:49:29.718Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:49:46.834Z | 97.5% | 95.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:49:47.512Z | 97.5% | 95.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:50:12.948Z | 97.5% | 95.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:51:31.900Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:51:48.085Z | 97.5% | 95.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:53:25.666Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:53:40.490Z | 97.5% | 96.4% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:55:19.021Z | 98.9% | 97.5% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:55:23.124Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:55:48.193Z | 97.5% | 98.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:57:28.304Z | 98.9% | 98.9% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:58:13.562Z | 98.9% | 97.5% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:58:17.250Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:58:25.628Z | 98.9% | 98.9% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:58:51.477Z | 98.9% | 99.9% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T09:59:16.060Z | 98.9% | 99.9% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:00:11.206Z | 99.7% | 99.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:00:31.184Z | 99.7% | 99.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:00:47.736Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:02:28.626Z | 99.7% | 99.7% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 59.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 9.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.3%. Marx fair UP is 61.5%.