VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +37.67 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 2AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY51.5%50.9% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY9.1%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+37.67 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-16.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%

Aug 07, 06:01 AMAug 07, 06:16 AMAug 07, 06:30 AMAug 07, 06:44 AMAug 07, 06:59 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-07T06:01:42.452Z	49.5%	8.1%	-41.4 pp
2026-08-07T06:06:36.508Z	42.5%	7.1%	-35.4 pp
2026-08-07T06:08:35.850Z	42.5%	6.6%	-35.9 pp
2026-08-07T06:13:34.091Z	50.5%	7.1%	-43.4 pp
2026-08-07T06:15:41.864Z	58.0%	9.7%	-48.3 pp
2026-08-07T06:19:42.102Z	72.5%	8.2%	-64.3 pp
2026-08-07T06:49:43.285Z	95.5%	0.5%	-95.0 pp
2026-08-07T06:59:10.232Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T06:59:14.569Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 9.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 37.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 3.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.6%, gross edge 41.1%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 38.2%. Marx fair UP is 8.9%.