VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +37.67 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 2AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Aug 07, 06:01 AMAug 07, 06:17 AMAug 07, 06:32 AMAug 07, 06:48 AMAug 07, 07:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T06:47:10.086Z | 91.0% | 91.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:47:25.856Z | 91.0% | 91.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:47:37.488Z | 91.0% | 2.1% | -88.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:48:10.586Z | 95.5% | 2.1% | -93.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:49:10.178Z | 93.5% | 95.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:49:21.529Z | 95.5% | 95.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:49:42.435Z | 95.5% | 0.5% | -95.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:49:43.285Z | 95.5% | 0.5% | -95.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:51:12.130Z | 93.5% | 93.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:51:23.113Z | 93.5% | 93.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:51:43.275Z | 93.5% | 0.3% | -93.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:52:10.720Z | 93.5% | 0.3% | -93.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:53:10.239Z | 93.5% | 93.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:53:21.943Z | 93.5% | 93.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:53:37.761Z | 93.5% | 0.0% | -93.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:54:21.442Z | 95.5% | 0.0% | -95.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:55:10.386Z | 95.0% | 95.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:55:35.661Z | 95.0% | 95.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:55:55.848Z | 95.0% | 0.0% | -95.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:56:10.586Z | 95.0% | 0.0% | -95.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:58:56.892Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:59:10.232Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T06:59:14.569Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T07:00:11.157Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T07:00:34.748Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T07:01:10.268Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T07:02:10.811Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T07:02:12.416Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T07:03:10.269Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T07:04:15.600Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 9.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 37.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 3.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.6%, gross edge 41.1%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 38.2%. Marx fair UP is 8.9%.