Ethereum Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +6.55 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 1AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY40.2%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+6.55 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 05:01 AMAug 07, 05:17 AMAug 07, 05:33 AMAug 07, 05:48 AMAug 07, 06:04 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T05:01:44.459Z54.0%3.1%-50.9 pp
2026-08-07T05:03:43.661Z54.0%3.2%-50.8 pp
2026-08-07T05:13:25.681Z57.0%2.3%-54.7 pp
2026-08-07T05:21:44.018Z47.5%0.7%-46.8 pp
2026-08-07T05:30:46.781Z39.5%0.2%-39.3 pp
2026-08-07T05:34:44.162Z41.5%0.1%-41.4 pp
2026-08-07T05:40:42.147Z44.0%0.0%-44.0 pp
2026-08-07T05:59:10.554Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T05:59:22.594Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T06:04:35.459Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 40.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 8.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.4%. Marx fair UP is 40.4%.