Ethereum Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +26.68 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 10AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY78.5%71.4% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+26.68 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN35.8%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 98.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 06, 02:17 PMAug 06, 02:28 PMAug 06, 02:38 PMAug 06, 02:49 PMAug 06, 02:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T14:17:40.866Z64.5%100.0%+35.5 pp
2026-08-06T14:19:42.818Z59.5%100.0%+40.5 pp
2026-08-06T14:21:39.560Z59.5%100.0%+40.5 pp
2026-08-06T14:23:41.002Z53.5%100.0%+46.5 pp
2026-08-06T14:29:47.858Z62.0%100.0%+38.0 pp
2026-08-06T14:36:40.268Z35.5%100.0%+64.5 pp
2026-08-06T14:38:43.175Z78.5%100.0%+21.5 pp
2026-08-06T14:40:44.136Z71.0%100.0%+29.0 pp
2026-08-06T14:46:46.799Z91.0%100.0%+9.0 pp
2026-08-06T14:53:41.643Z86.5%100.0%+13.5 pp
2026-08-06T14:59:09.667Z98.0%100.0%+2.0 pp
2026-08-06T14:59:41.519Z98.0%100.0%+2.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 78.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 71.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 26.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 71.4%, gross edge 30.0%, slippage 1.4%, fee 1.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 26.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.