VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +26.68 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 10AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.8%Marx Fair UP 99.8%
Aug 06, 02:00 PMAug 06, 02:15 PMAug 06, 02:30 PMAug 06, 02:46 PMAug 06, 03:01 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T14:42:16.080Z | 81.5% | 100.0% | +18.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:45:09.684Z | 91.0% | 91.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:45:23.583Z | 91.0% | 91.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:46:09.673Z | 91.0% | 100.0% | +9.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:46:46.799Z | 91.0% | 100.0% | +9.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:47:09.977Z | 91.0% | 100.0% | +9.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:48:10.784Z | 91.0% | 91.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:48:30.232Z | 91.0% | 91.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:48:42.619Z | 91.0% | 100.0% | +9.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:48:43.599Z | 91.0% | 100.0% | +9.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:49:10.081Z | 88.0% | 100.0% | +12.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:49:47.884Z | 88.0% | 100.0% | +12.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:50:10.464Z | 86.5% | 88.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:50:30.417Z | 88.0% | 88.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:50:54.288Z | 88.0% | 100.0% | +12.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:52:39.491Z | 88.0% | 88.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:53:20.319Z | 86.5% | 86.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:53:41.643Z | 86.5% | 100.0% | +13.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:54:18.641Z | 86.5% | 100.0% | +13.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:55:10.462Z | 98.0% | 88.0% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:55:21.547Z | 88.0% | 88.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:55:42.397Z | 88.0% | 100.0% | +12.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:57:35.896Z | 98.0% | 98.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:57:47.249Z | 98.0% | 100.0% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:58:10.342Z | 98.0% | 100.0% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:59:09.667Z | 98.0% | 98.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:59:27.644Z | 98.0% | 98.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:59:41.519Z | 98.0% | 100.0% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:00:10.039Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:01:19.893Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 78.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 71.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 26.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 71.4%, gross edge 30.0%, slippage 1.4%, fee 1.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 26.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.