Ethereum Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +26.21 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 8AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY79.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+26.21 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.8%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 06, 12:01 PMAug 06, 12:16 PMAug 06, 12:30 PMAug 06, 12:45 PMAug 06, 12:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T12:01:35.757Z50.0%100.0%+50.0 pp
2026-08-06T12:03:35.865Z29.5%100.0%+70.5 pp
2026-08-06T12:05:43.940Z28.5%100.0%+71.5 pp
2026-08-06T12:09:39.195Z23.5%100.0%+76.5 pp
2026-08-06T12:14:43.790Z14.5%100.0%+85.5 pp
2026-08-06T12:22:38.583Z10.5%100.0%+89.5 pp
2026-08-06T12:28:39.968Z18.5%100.0%+81.5 pp
2026-08-06T12:34:39.271Z21.5%100.0%+78.5 pp
2026-08-06T12:38:36.457Z19.0%100.0%+81.0 pp
2026-08-06T12:40:42.526Z19.0%100.0%+81.0 pp
2026-08-06T12:42:48.810Z31.5%100.0%+68.5 pp
2026-08-06T12:59:09.619Z0.1%100.0%+99.9 pp
2026-08-06T12:59:40.470Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 79.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 26.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 28.7%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 26.5%. Marx fair UP is 79.7%.