VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +17.74 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 11AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 55.5%Marx Fair UP 55.5%
Aug 05, 03:00 PMAug 05, 03:06 PMAug 05, 03:13 PMAug 05, 03:19 PMAug 05, 03:26 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T15:08:45.355Z | 59.5% | 74.1% | +14.6 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:10:31.636Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:11:09.439Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:13:51.852Z | 69.5% | 57.0% | -12.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:14:16.981Z | 69.5% | 57.0% | -12.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:14:33.070Z | 57.0% | 57.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:14:41.660Z | 69.5% | 69.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:15:09.523Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:15:22.641Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:16:09.445Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:17:10.123Z | 60.5% | 64.9% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:17:13.559Z | 44.5% | 64.9% | +20.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:17:26.053Z | 44.5% | 64.9% | +20.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:18:09.623Z | 44.5% | 44.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:18:24.582Z | 44.5% | 44.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:19:09.498Z | 44.5% | 61.8% | +17.3 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:19:45.692Z | 44.5% | 61.8% | +17.3 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:20:09.631Z | 43.5% | 61.8% | +18.3 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:21:09.246Z | 55.5% | 43.5% | -12.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:21:22.199Z | 43.5% | 43.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:21:41.256Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:22:00.913Z | 55.5% | 73.8% | +18.3 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:22:12.186Z | 55.5% | 73.8% | +18.3 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:23:14.461Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:23:29.876Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:24:46.391Z | 55.5% | 68.8% | +13.3 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:25:14.236Z | 55.5% | 68.8% | +13.3 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:25:24.732Z | 55.5% | 68.8% | +13.3 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:26:10.166Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:26:24.222Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 71.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 17.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.2%, gross edge 21.7%, slippage 0.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 19.2%. Marx fair UP is 72.7%.