Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 1-Hour hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +17.74 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 11AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%51.2% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY71.2%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+17.74 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-15.3%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 05, 03:06 PMAug 05, 03:21 PMAug 05, 03:35 PMAug 05, 03:50 PMAug 05, 04:04 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T15:06:45.887Z59.5%75.8%+16.3 pp
2026-08-05T15:08:45.355Z59.5%74.1%+14.6 pp
2026-08-05T15:22:00.913Z55.5%73.8%+18.3 pp
2026-08-05T15:25:14.236Z55.5%68.8%+13.3 pp
2026-08-05T15:32:46.830Z57.5%86.4%+28.9 pp
2026-08-05T15:35:58.118Z70.5%89.2%+18.7 pp
2026-08-05T15:40:59.140Z85.0%95.8%+10.8 pp
2026-08-05T15:46:05.441Z77.5%89.1%+11.6 pp
2026-08-05T15:49:56.736Z70.0%94.7%+24.7 pp
2026-08-05T15:52:46.455Z70.0%81.4%+11.4 pp
2026-08-05T15:58:42.086Z9.5%9.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-05T15:59:09.122Z9.5%9.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-05T16:04:38.889Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 71.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 17.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.2%, gross edge 21.7%, slippage 0.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 19.2%. Marx fair UP is 72.7%.