VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +46.22 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 2AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%51.5% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+46.22 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.4%Marx Fair UP 99.3%

Aug 01, 06:03 AMAug 01, 06:17 AMAug 01, 06:31 AMAug 01, 06:45 AMAug 01, 06:59 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-01T06:03:48.154Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-08-01T06:59:36.451Z	99.4%	99.3%	-0.0 pp
2026-08-01T06:59:37.022Z	99.4%	99.3%	-0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.2 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.