VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +46.22 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 2AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 01, 06:00 AMAug 01, 06:16 AMAug 01, 06:32 AMAug 01, 06:48 AMAug 01, 07:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T06:35:18.048Z | 87.5% | 87.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:35:26.083Z | 87.0% | 87.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:35:55.688Z | 87.5% | 87.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:36:09.262Z | 87.5% | 87.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:36:38.472Z | 87.5% | 0.0% | -87.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:36:45.977Z | 87.5% | 0.0% | -87.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:37:41.599Z | 92.0% | 0.0% | -92.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:47:52.691Z | 87.5% | 98.5% | +11.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:48:07.842Z | 97.8% | 98.5% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:48:19.665Z | 97.8% | 98.5% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:48:24.149Z | 97.8% | 98.5% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:49:04.264Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:50:22.107Z | 97.8% | 97.7% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:50:29.544Z | 98.5% | 97.7% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:52:21.147Z | 98.5% | 0.0% | -98.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:52:22.077Z | 97.8% | 0.0% | -97.7 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:54:47.478Z | 99.4% | 98.4% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:55:15.759Z | 98.4% | 98.4% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:57:01.249Z | 98.4% | 98.4% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:57:55.294Z | 99.4% | 0.0% | -99.3 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:58:45.612Z | 98.7% | 0.0% | -98.6 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:59:36.451Z | 99.4% | 99.3% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:59:37.022Z | 99.4% | 99.3% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:00:22.050Z | 99.8% | 99.3% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:01:25.762Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:01:38.828Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:03:19.370Z | 100.0% | 99.8% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:03:19.396Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:04:40.202Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:04:40.278Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.