VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +9.03 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 31, 9AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY37.7%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+9.03 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.0%

Jul 31, 01:05 PMJul 31, 01:19 PMJul 31, 01:32 PMJul 31, 01:45 PMJul 31, 01:58 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-31T13:05:53.111Z	51.5%	0.0%	-51.5 pp
2026-07-31T13:45:33.710Z	22.5%	0.0%	-22.5 pp
2026-07-31T13:57:43.690Z	0.1%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
2026-07-31T13:58:45.942Z	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 37.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 9.0 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 11.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 9.5%. Marx fair UP is 37.2%.