VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +9.82 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 2PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 30, 06:00 PMJul 30, 06:16 PMJul 30, 06:31 PMJul 30, 06:47 PMJul 30, 07:03 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T18:45:28.000Z | 14.5% | 14.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:45:41.492Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:46:04.311Z | 14.5% | 53.1% | +38.6 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:46:23.041Z | 16.5% | 53.1% | +36.6 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:47:23.220Z | 16.5% | 16.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:47:41.473Z | 16.5% | 16.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:48:22.704Z | 16.5% | 16.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:49:03.948Z | 16.5% | 54.8% | +38.3 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:49:27.725Z | 16.5% | 54.8% | +38.3 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:50:26.609Z | 5.5% | 54.8% | +49.3 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:51:50.484Z | 16.5% | 44.5% | +28.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:52:39.888Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:54:14.665Z | 5.5% | 31.1% | +25.6 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:55:29.915Z | 1.1% | 5.5% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:55:43.295Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:56:54.035Z | 5.5% | 13.4% | +7.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:57:20.436Z | 1.1% | 13.4% | +12.3 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:57:22.830Z | 1.1% | 13.4% | +12.3 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:58:23.808Z | 1.1% | 1.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:58:41.301Z | 1.1% | 1.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:58:57.562Z | 1.1% | 12.4% | +11.3 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:59:23.117Z | 0.1% | 12.4% | +12.3 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:59:24.789Z | 3.5% | 12.4% | +8.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:59:36.348Z | 0.1% | 12.4% | +12.3 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:00:22.921Z | 0.1% | 12.4% | +12.3 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:00:26.595Z | 3.5% | 12.4% | +8.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:00:40.055Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:01:03.844Z | 0.1% | 3.3% | +3.3 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:01:23.105Z | 0.1% | 3.3% | +3.3 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:03:17.761Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 61.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 49.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 9.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 49.2%, gross edge 12.3%, slippage 0.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 9.8%. Marx fair UP is 61.3%.