Ethereum Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +9.82 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 2PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY48.0%49.2% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY61.3%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+9.82 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-13.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 30, 06:01 PMJul 30, 06:16 PMJul 30, 06:32 PMJul 30, 06:47 PMJul 30, 07:03 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T18:01:00.406Z50.0%63.4%+13.4 pp
2026-07-30T18:43:10.220Z13.5%48.8%+35.3 pp
2026-07-30T18:59:23.117Z0.1%12.4%+12.3 pp
2026-07-30T18:59:36.348Z0.1%12.4%+12.3 pp
2026-07-30T19:03:17.761Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 61.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.0%.
  • The executable UP entry was 49.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 9.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 49.2%, gross edge 12.3%, slippage 0.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 9.8%. Marx fair UP is 61.3%.

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +9.82 pp Edge | AntiPredict