VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +20.88 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 1PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%53.9% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY23.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+20.88 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-9.1%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 86.0%Marx Fair UP 8.0%

Jul 30, 05:14 PMJul 30, 05:25 PMJul 30, 05:36 PMJul 30, 05:47 PMJul 30, 05:58 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T17:14:41.680Z	44.5%	18.9%	-25.6 pp
2026-07-30T17:27:46.738Z	63.5%	34.9%	-28.6 pp
2026-07-30T17:41:29.480Z	58.5%	28.7%	-29.8 pp
2026-07-30T17:49:10.833Z	89.5%	45.7%	-43.8 pp
2026-07-30T17:52:59.357Z	94.5%	41.7%	-52.8 pp
2026-07-30T17:58:22.795Z	99.5%	8.0%	-91.5 pp
2026-07-30T17:58:57.700Z	86.0%	8.0%	-78.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 23.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
The executable DOWN entry was 53.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 20.9 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 6.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.9%, gross edge 24.0%, slippage 0.9%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 20.9%. Marx fair UP is 23.0%.