VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +20.88 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 1PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 30, 05:01 PMJul 30, 05:17 PMJul 30, 05:33 PMJul 30, 05:48 PMJul 30, 06:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T17:47:24.036Z | 89.5% | 48.7% | -40.8 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:48:23.167Z | 89.5% | 48.7% | -40.8 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:48:26.993Z | 58.5% | 48.7% | -9.8 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:48:39.440Z | 89.5% | 89.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:49:10.833Z | 89.5% | 45.7% | -43.8 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:49:34.415Z | 89.5% | 45.7% | -43.8 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:50:23.297Z | 94.5% | 45.7% | -48.8 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:51:28.335Z | 94.5% | 94.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:51:47.616Z | 94.5% | 94.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:52:25.261Z | 94.5% | 41.7% | -52.8 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:52:59.357Z | 94.5% | 41.7% | -52.8 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:53:25.189Z | 94.5% | 41.7% | -52.8 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:54:23.702Z | 94.5% | 95.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:54:27.647Z | 95.5% | 95.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:54:41.985Z | 94.5% | 94.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:54:53.996Z | 94.5% | 20.2% | -74.3 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:55:23.099Z | 94.5% | 20.2% | -74.3 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:56:23.230Z | 86.0% | 94.5% | +8.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:56:38.059Z | 94.5% | 94.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:56:53.913Z | 94.5% | 10.8% | -83.7 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:57:23.700Z | 86.0% | 10.8% | -75.2 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:58:22.795Z | 99.5% | 86.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:58:39.932Z | 86.0% | 86.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:58:57.700Z | 86.0% | 8.0% | -78.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:00:42.205Z | 86.0% | 86.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:01:00.338Z | 86.0% | 0.9% | -85.1 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:02:22.827Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:02:30.428Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:03:24.085Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:04:22.930Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 23.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 53.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 20.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 6.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.9%, gross edge 24.0%, slippage 0.9%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 20.9%. Marx fair UP is 23.0%.