VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +51.21 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 9AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 95.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 30, 01:01 PMJul 30, 01:16 PMJul 30, 01:30 PMJul 30, 01:45 PMJul 30, 01:59 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T13:01:28.772Z | 46.5% | 98.2% | +51.7 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:11:58.635Z | 55.5% | 99.0% | +43.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:14:33.727Z | 49.0% | 99.4% | +50.4 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:20:51.290Z | 45.5% | 99.1% | +53.6 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:25:09.294Z | 42.5% | 99.6% | +57.1 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:40:35.754Z | 10.5% | 99.0% | +88.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:43:39.258Z | 10.5% | 100.0% | +89.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:46:49.794Z | 79.5% | 100.0% | +20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:58:30.249Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:59:57.163Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.4 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 55.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 45.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 51.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 45.5%, gross edge 54.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 51.2%. Marx fair UP is 99.0%.