VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +51.21 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 9AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.6%Marx Fair UP 99.6%
Jul 30, 01:01 PMJul 30, 01:17 PMJul 30, 01:32 PMJul 30, 01:48 PMJul 30, 02:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T13:49:36.986Z | 79.5% | 100.0% | +20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:50:02.912Z | 91.5% | 100.0% | +8.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:50:43.747Z | 88.0% | 100.0% | +12.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:51:04.609Z | 91.5% | 100.0% | +8.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:51:05.070Z | 91.5% | 100.0% | +8.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:52:25.349Z | 97.0% | 97.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:52:49.925Z | 97.0% | 97.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:52:58.814Z | 97.0% | 97.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:53:22.661Z | 88.0% | 88.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:53:47.062Z | 97.0% | 97.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:54:00.427Z | 97.0% | 97.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:54:26.149Z | 88.0% | 100.0% | +12.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:54:46.305Z | 97.0% | 100.0% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:55:05.460Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:55:38.739Z | 95.5% | 95.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:55:58.097Z | 95.5% | 95.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:56:34.002Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:57:02.641Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:57:57.364Z | 95.5% | 95.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:58:12.209Z | 95.5% | 95.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:58:30.249Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:58:59.490Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:59:57.163Z | 95.5% | 95.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:00:17.337Z | 95.5% | 95.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:00:49.971Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:00:58.772Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:02:00.410Z | 99.6% | 99.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:02:26.778Z | 99.6% | 99.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:02:58.676Z | 99.6% | 99.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:04:04.129Z | 99.6% | 99.6% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 55.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 45.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 51.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 45.5%, gross edge 54.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 51.2%. Marx fair UP is 99.0%.