VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +40.35 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 4PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 29, 08:00 PMJul 29, 08:16 PMJul 29, 08:32 PMJul 29, 08:48 PMJul 29, 09:03 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T20:47:42.156Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:47:47.734Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:48:16.552Z | 58.5% | 0.0% | -58.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:48:50.664Z | 58.5% | 0.0% | -58.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:49:47.449Z | 38.5% | 38.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:50:06.449Z | 38.5% | 38.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:51:00.733Z | 20.5% | 0.0% | -20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:51:12.909Z | 38.5% | 0.0% | -38.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:51:42.455Z | 20.5% | 20.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:51:52.256Z | 20.5% | 20.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:52:42.936Z | 20.5% | 0.0% | -20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:53:15.848Z | 20.5% | 0.0% | -20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:53:42.526Z | 20.5% | 0.0% | -20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:54:43.784Z | 26.5% | 26.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:54:53.045Z | 26.5% | 26.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:55:16.877Z | 26.5% | 0.0% | -26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:55:42.341Z | 26.5% | 0.0% | -26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:56:42.097Z | 0.5% | 26.5% | +26.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:56:56.594Z | 26.5% | 26.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:57:09.994Z | 26.5% | 0.0% | -26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:58:50.143Z | 26.5% | 26.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:59:15.801Z | 26.5% | 0.0% | -26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:59:52.856Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T21:00:42.335Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T21:00:53.489Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T21:01:15.361Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T21:01:42.498Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T21:02:42.286Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T21:02:52.222Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T21:03:59.327Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 3.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 53.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 40.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 6.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.5%, gross edge 41.2%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 38.4%. Marx fair UP is 5.8%.