VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +40.35 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 4PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Jul 29, 08:14 PMJul 29, 08:25 PMJul 29, 08:37 PMJul 29, 08:48 PMJul 29, 08:59 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T20:14:21.914Z | 35.5% | 0.0% | -35.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:18:14.142Z | 48.5% | 0.0% | -48.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:29:22.794Z | 58.5% | 0.0% | -58.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:42:16.681Z | 31.5% | 0.0% | -31.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:48:16.552Z | 58.5% | 0.0% | -58.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:51:12.909Z | 38.5% | 0.0% | -38.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:55:16.877Z | 26.5% | 0.0% | -26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:56:42.097Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:59:52.856Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 3.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 53.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 40.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 6.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.5%, gross edge 41.2%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 38.4%. Marx fair UP is 5.8%.