VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +24.39 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 1PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.9%Marx Fair UP 99.9%
Jul 29, 05:01 PMJul 29, 05:15 PMJul 29, 05:30 PMJul 29, 05:45 PMJul 29, 05:59 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T17:01:16.653Z | 52.0% | 13.1% | -38.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:13:23.757Z | 66.0% | 15.1% | -50.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:15:22.458Z | 66.0% | 26.0% | -40.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:31:16.371Z | 62.0% | 4.7% | -57.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:33:16.009Z | 53.5% | 6.1% | -47.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:41:22.674Z | 70.5% | 9.4% | -61.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:59:43.084Z | 99.9% | 99.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:59:55.967Z | 99.9% | 99.9% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 20.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 53.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 24.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 6.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.0%, gross edge 27.7%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 24.4%. Marx fair UP is 20.3%.