VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +24.39 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 1PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 29, 05:00 PMJul 29, 05:16 PMJul 29, 05:32 PMJul 29, 05:48 PMJul 29, 06:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T17:46:56.666Z | 92.5% | 92.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:47:18.390Z | 92.5% | 18.7% | -73.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:47:43.014Z | 92.5% | 18.7% | -73.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:48:50.939Z | 92.5% | 92.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:49:00.586Z | 92.5% | 92.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:49:22.270Z | 92.5% | 11.6% | -80.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:49:42.468Z | 92.5% | 11.6% | -80.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:51:20.933Z | 97.5% | 45.8% | -51.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:51:31.720Z | 92.5% | 45.8% | -46.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:51:46.721Z | 97.5% | 45.8% | -51.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:52:44.586Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:53:01.675Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:53:42.128Z | 99.3% | 99.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:53:53.263Z | 99.3% | 99.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:54:20.813Z | 99.3% | 47.3% | -52.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:54:42.095Z | 99.3% | 47.3% | -52.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:55:43.198Z | 99.3% | 99.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:55:55.803Z | 99.3% | 99.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:56:19.829Z | 99.3% | 99.9% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:56:45.932Z | 99.3% | 99.9% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:57:42.967Z | 99.3% | 99.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:57:56.490Z | 99.3% | 99.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:58:14.214Z | 99.3% | 100.0% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:58:43.323Z | 99.9% | 100.0% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:59:43.084Z | 99.9% | 99.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:59:55.967Z | 99.9% | 99.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:00:18.878Z | 99.9% | 100.0% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:00:42.588Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:02:12.403Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:04:11.149Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 20.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 53.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 24.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 6.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.0%, gross edge 27.7%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 24.4%. Marx fair UP is 20.3%.