VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +19.24 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 8PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY27.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+19.24 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%

Jul 30, 12:03 AMJul 30, 12:18 AMJul 30, 12:33 AMJul 30, 12:48 AMJul 30, 01:03 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T00:03:11.123Z	47.0%	23.9%	-23.1 pp
2026-07-30T00:10:49.800Z	59.5%	29.8%	-29.7 pp
2026-07-30T00:21:39.035Z	58.5%	36.8%	-21.7 pp
2026-07-30T00:24:32.347Z	49.5%	28.2%	-21.3 pp
2026-07-30T00:27:19.609Z	49.5%	21.1%	-28.4 pp
2026-07-30T00:34:43.838Z	52.5%	3.2%	-49.3 pp
2026-07-30T00:56:22.510Z	0.1%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
2026-07-30T00:59:21.972Z	0.1%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
2026-07-30T01:03:03.849Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 27.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 19.2 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 19.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 17.3%. Marx fair UP is 29.5%.